These are my predictions for the nominations and wins for the Filmfare Awards next year. Before you ask, yes, I have no life. And I'm too excited for these new movies, which will probably end up being crap. By the way, you all might be surprised that I left out Aamir Khan's THE RISING out of the lineup, but I seriously doubt that it will be released this year considering the size and scope of the film. Post production's going to be a bitch. Anyways, I hope to update this thread throughout the year with my musings (and yours). Let the forecasting begin!

BEST FILM

BLACK
Why? Sanjay Leela Bhansali’s last two films (Hum Dil De Chuke Sanam, Devdas) have not only been nominated for Best Picture in the last few years, but both went on to won the coveted prize. It would be stupid to discard Black, no matter how sketchy the details are on the plot and nature of the movie. It’s still early to tell on this one, but I think Bhansali is still respected enough in Bollywood to pull this one off. It won’t win, but besides Lakshya, it’s the best bet on this list of predictions.
WINNER - * LAKSHYA
Why? It’s Farhan Akhtar’s highly anticipated second film after Dil Chahta Hai, which would have easily won Best Film in 2001 had it not been for another little film called Lagaan. Right now, it seems to be the frontrunner for the win, even though it opens as early as June. One of the few good things about the Filmfare Awards is that they aren’t forgetful by the end of the year (like the Oscars, where the majority of nominated films are released in the second half of the year). I think, at this point, Lakshya looks like the winner.
SWADES
Why? Ashutosh Gowariker + Shahrukh Khan. Enough said. Although it doesn’t seem like a huge crowd pleaser like Lagaan, it seems like a pretty good bet.
TAJ MAHAL: AN ETERNAL LOVE STORY
This year’s Devdas. Eye candy is always a good thing, and even if Taj Mahal turns out to be a big snoozer of a history melodrama, the visuals will ensure that a nomination is in order (hey, since when is quality indicative of a Filmfare Award nominee, heheh?). It’s been widely hyped for years, and I think that will translate for greater recognition. But it’s still the shakiest pick here – it could be one of the biggest hits this year or one of the biggest financial disasters in decades.
YUVA
I really think (unfortunately) Mani Ratnam is trying get away from the Dil Se.. debacle (which I think is his masterpiece film) as much as he can with this movie. The trailers alone showcase the film’s hyper-kinetic editing style (no doubt trying to cater to the youth audience). I’m pretty sure it will be nominated, but I don’t think anyone will take it seriously for a win. It has much better chances in the acting/technical categories.

Alternate predictions – Khakee (if voters remember it), Bride and Prejudice (if it’s a hit, which it won’t be), Maqbool (but a very, very slim chance – could possibly walk away with a critic’s prize), Subhash Ghai’s next (but hardly a bankable prediction at this point – it looks terrible in concept), 1857: The Rising (if it even releases this year, which I very much doubt), Dev (if it’s a dark film that nonetheless makes money like Satya, Vastaav or Chandni Bar), Main Hoo Na (if it’s a huge hit, which I very much doubt)

BEST DIRECTOR
Sanjay Leela Bhansali, Black
Ashutosh Gowariker, Swades
Akbar Khan, Taj Mahal
WINNER - * Farhan Akhtar, Lakshya
Mani Ratnam, Yuva

Yawn. I’m predicting five for five here, matching the Best Film nominations. The Filmfare Awards don’t stray from this formula often, no matter how strange their lineup looked last year (nominating J.P. Dutta out of respect while leaving his movie L.O.C. out of the film category). It looks like Akhtar is a good bet for a win here as well. He’s also well respected, and if not for Ashutosh Gowariker, he would have won for Dil Chata Hai back at the March 2002 ceremony. The others I don’t see having a big chance at all. Sanjay Leela Bhansali will be back the next year (in 2005) with Bajirao Mastani, which will probably earn him his umpteenth award (does this man sleep?). In my opinion, this is a two way race between Akhtar and Gowariker.

Alternate predictions – Subhash Ghai for Kisna, Rajkumar Santoshi for Khakee, Gurinder Chadha for Bride and Prejudice, Govind Nihalani for Dev, Farah Khan for Main Hoo Na

BEST ACTOR
WINNER - *Amitabh Bachcahn, Khakee, Black or Dev (this man here, he apparently doesn't sleep either!)
Ajay Devgan, Yuva
Saif Ali Khan, Ek Hasina Thi or Hum Tum
Shahrukh Khan for anything (Main Hoo Na or Swades)
Hritik Roshan, Lakshya

Sigh, what a boring lineup – the same actors year after year. Roshan is in, although he could be left out if voters have had enough of him (since he won two Filmfare Awards last year). But considering he’s in the frontrunner for Best Film, it’s ridiculous to discount his chances. He very well could be the winner next year as well. But don’t count out the other contenders. I think voters may remember Amitabh Bachchan’s superlative work in Khakee throughout the year, which will translate into a nomination. I don’t know if Bachchan can pull off a win here, but he may be overdue for a lead actor win, despite the fact he won not too long ago for Mohabbatein. I do however agree with Rajkumar Santoshi that he may very well be a lock for the National Award (although who knows with that unpredictable organization?). Amitabh also has another great chance with Govind Nihalani’s Dev. Ajay Devgan is another perennial nominee who never seems to win (besides the consolation critics’ prizes). The cast of Yuva presents a challenge in predicting the nominations because it’s an ensemble film, where all the actors could be eligible in the lead or supporting categories. Of the members though, I would say Devgan has the best chance for going lead – it seems like he commands the film. Saif Ali Khan, I think, could be back next year since he’s become hot property following his performance (and Filmfare award) for Kal Ho Naa Ho. He could earn a nod for either Ek Hasina Thi (which is less likely) or the bankable Yash Raj funded, Kunal Kohli directed Hum Tum. As for Shahrukh Khan, he could sit on a chair, jerk off and still be handed a nomination. Seriously. But it’s a good sign that he lost last year to the much more deserving Roshan. Next year, I don’t expect him to do much damage either. For the win, I’d say it’s a three-way race between the first three, but I think Bachchan will just squeak by.

Alternate predictions – Salman Khan for Marigold, Vivek Oberoi for Kisna or Kyun…! Ho Gaya Na?, Irfaan Khan for Maqbool (whom voters may remember since he won Best Villain for Haasil just this year)

BEST ACTRESS
Kareena Kapoor, Dev or Bewafa
WINNER - * Rani Mukherjee, Black or Yuva (if lead)
Aishwarya Rai, Bride and Prejudice
Tabu, Maqbool
Urmilla, Ek Hasina Thi
Preity Zinta, Lakshya

Never count Aish out, that’s what I say. Even though I seriously doubt Bride and Prejudice will make much of a splash in India in comparison to the West, I think Rai has a good chance for this film. Preity Zinta will be back this year undoubtedly for Lakshya after her horrifyingly undeserving win for Kal Ho Naa Ho. I think Urmilla will be a contender too, after winning the Critics’ Actress prize last year. This is one versatile actress that just keeps people eating their words by delivering back to back phenomenal performances year after year (Pyaar Tune Kya Kiya, Bhoot, Pinjar, Tehzeeb and Ek Hasina Thi). She got stunning reviews for Ek Hasina Thi, which I’m hoping will drive her to another nomination (sadly, I don’t think it can manage a win). I think voters may be feeling a lot of guilt from last year, especially after the Zee Cine Academy ended up looking like the smart ones by handing a Best Actress statue to her for Bhoot. Rani Mukherjee will be back, considering she also had a terrific 2002/2003, despite the fact that virtually nothing is known about her role in Black. I’ll also predict Kareena Kapoor as a possible contender for any of her films this year, particularly Dev which has her in another de-glam perf (although she may be more of a supporting player – I’ve placed her there too). And just to play it safe, since six actresses were nominated last year, I’ll say that Tabu could very well make it in for Maqbool or Meenaxi: A Tale of Three Cities. The danger is that many people didn’t see these brilliant films, so she could not end up on the list at all. But voters have major respect for Tabu, and she got the best reviews in her career for Maqbool (I agree – it may be her best work in an already astounding acting career). For the win, I’d say at this point (which really means nothing), I’d predict Rani Mukherjee who seems due for a third award (following smaller victories for Supporting Actress and Critics’ Actress). Unless voters are really feeling guilty, which means Urmilla might finally win an award which she deserved years ago.

Alternate predictions – Kareena Kapoor for Chameli (who would be a lock in my lineup if she hadn’t already won a stupid citation at this year’s ceremony!), Sushmita Sen for Main Hoo Na (if it’s a hit – also a possibility in Best Comedic Performance)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
WINNER - * Abhishek Bachchan, Yuva
Parvin Dabas, Lakshya
Arbaaz Khan, Taj Mahal: An Eternal Love Story
Akshaye Kumar, Khakee
Vivek Oberoi, Yuva

I think this will finally be Bachchan’s year. He’s had to watch his family, peers, competition and ex-fiancee head to the stage for years, despite getting a nomination last year for Mein Prem Ki Diwani Hoon (one of the worst films I’ve seen in my life). Early word for Yuva says it’s a stunning piece of acting, and the fact that it’s tinged with negative vibes only helps. He’s an early lock, IMO, but then again, that means nothing with the Filmfare Awards. Mani Ratnam is a terrific director, and he’ll extract great things from all the cast members (I even have high hopes for Esha Deol), but for a win, Bachchan looks like the best bet. I’m also thinking that although Khakee won’t really have great chances in the big categories, it will do fare better in the acting citations. Akshaye Kumar won raves for the film, and the turn his character takes will only help his chances. Those are the only two performances that seem like locks this early on. Taj Mahal is another ensemble film, and although its chances for lead nods are unlikely, it could get some nominations for the supporting players. I think out of the cast, Arbaaz Khan could possibly get recognized for playing against type. Vivek Oberoi is still very hot property these days (and even has two Filmfare Awards to his name, winning in this category in 2002 and also picking up Best Newcomer) – he could also make it in for Yuva, although his part seems the least showy of the three male characters. Parvin Dabas made a huge debut in Mira Nair’s Monsoon Wedding a few years ago, and maybe follow it up a nomination next year for a supporting role in Lakshya? Just a blind guess.

Alternate predictions – Fardeen Khan for Dev (his second nod - could it happen??!!), Tusshar Kapoor for Khakee (although his helium-high voice doesn’t help matters), Ajay Devgan for Khakee (but he has better chances for Yuva), Martin Henderson for Bride and Prejudice

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jaya Bachchan for anything
WINNER - * Kareena Kapoor, Dev or Yuva
Manisha Koirala, Taj Mahal: An Eternal Love Story
Rani Mukherjee, Yuva
Aishwarya Rai, Khakee

This is a pretty weak category in my opinion. That’s why I’m even predicting that Aish will even be nominated for her unexciting work in Khakee. Mukherjee looks like she’s in for Yuva. Manisha Koirala is very hit and miss with the Filmfare Awards, and with her performances in general – sometimes scoring big time (Best Critics’ Actress for Company) and sometimes flopping miserably (Escape from Taliban, anyone?). Taj Mahal could force her to be a little more subtle in her approach (which always produces her best work, IMO). Kareena Kapoor could make it in lead or supporting for a hyped de-glam role in Dev opposite Amitabh Bachchan and Fardeen Khan. Other than this, I really don’t know. I might even go ahead and predict Jaya Bachchan, who is nominated for whatever the hell she does (in the last five years, she’s won this award three times!). That’s not to say she’s bad or anything, but I think the only award she deserved was the one she won for Fiza, that’s it. She took a cliché and created a strong, exciting and powerful mother character. She did the opposite in K3G and Kal Ho Naa Ho – playing boringly defined mother characters that quietly suffer and take abuse from their husbands or mothers-in-law. Boring!

Alternate predictions – Pooja Batra for Taj Mahal: An Eternal Love Story, Esha Deol for Yuva, Gayatri Joshi for Swades

BEST MUSIC
A.R. Rahman, Yuva
WINNER - * Shankar Ehsaan Loy, Lakhshya
Naushad, Taj Mahal
Jatin Lalit, Hum Tum
Himesh Reshamiyya, Run!

Why do people care so much for the Filmfare Awards as (almost) everyone knows that it is not based on performances but popularity and gross at the BO? Please stop taking Filmfare and others in the same row serious.

EDIT: Retracted. Sorry, bad mood that day.

Hahahaha! Dr Wicked and Evil!

EDIT: Retracted.

Don't be frustrated, it's not good for your health.
All I meant to say was: why FILMFARE AWARDS? You must love those awards very much to be willing to predict them. Please note, I did not mean to "suck the fun out of it". You can do whatever you want. Besides, it's waaaay to early to predict them.

Filmfare Awards... Zee Cine Awards... Screen Weekly Awards... what's the difference? I would have chosen something more prestigious, like the National Awards, but they don't even have nominations, and their choices sometimes border on the ridiculous (scratch that, they ARE ridiculous - Raveena Tandon for DAMAN?). I don't know, it was a way to talk about the films and performances that I thought would be acknowledged and noticed next year.

I was reluctant to dig up this thread, primarily because of my juvenile response to Anwar (sorry about that).

But I thought it was funny how off the mark I was on these predictions (which I did almost a year ago today). I did guess correctly on a lot of the actors/directors who would be nominated... And to my credit, I correctly guessed that Rani Mukerji would win Best Actress (albeit for the wrong film) and Abhishek Bachchan for Best Supporting Actor. And although Kareena Kapoor didn't win Supporting Actress according to my forecast, she did (undeservingly) win the Critics' Award.

As for my Best Picture predictions, I hugely overestimated Lakshya's prospects. And although Taj Mahal and Black may very well be Best Film nominees next year, I jumped the gun on their release dates this time around. Ironically, I didn't factor in Veer-Zaara (pure Filmfare-bait) because I thought it wouldn't release in 2004.

Here are some more funny excerpts:

Re: Main Hoon Naa's chances for a Best Film nod and box office success:


On Best Director:


On overestimating the intelligence of voters on the best actress working today:


And on Shahrukh's low chances for winning Best Actor:


Ah, Filmfare Awards. So terrible, but yet so engaging. I think I'll do another thread on next year's predictions.

Let me help you out here buddy on one at least, but you must go back and do the other, or ask Ali or Ul!

I would like to read your piece kamran. It'll be interesting to read some of your thoughts on some recently released films. And plus, I too have no life, so I'll get a kick out of reading it all.

All FF awards are SOLD OUT till eternity

Excellent. Good to know someone's reading out there. I'll type a predictions list once my exams are done next week.